The Uganda Cranes face Algeria tonight, October 14, in Tizi Ouzou in their final 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier at the Hocine Aït Ahmed Stadium.
The odds are stacked heavily against them. A win alone is not enough. The result must align with several unlikely outcomes across the continent for Uganda to stay in the race.
Uganda sit second in Group G with 18 points, four behind Algeria who have already secured qualification. Only the group winners qualify directly for the World Cup.
The best four second-placed teams will move to a CAF playoff in Morocco in November. The winner of that playoff will then face an intercontinental playoff to earn one of the final two World Cup spots.
Uganda’s only remaining path is to beat Algeria, hope several rivals drop points, win the CAF playoff, and then win the global playoff. Each stage carries massive difficulty.
The Task Tonight
Uganda have never beaten Algeria in a competitive fixture since 1998. The North Africans also have home advantage and have only lost to Guinea in the qualifiers. Uganda’s chances of victory tonight are low, around 20 percent.
Even if they win, Uganda must do so convincingly and pray for the right combination of results elsewhere.
What Uganda Need
To finish among the top four runners-up, Uganda must:
- Beat Algeria, ideally by two or more goals.
- Hope DR Congo drop points at home to Sudan.
- Hope Benin beat Nigeria.
- Hope South Africa fail to beat Rwanda.
If Nigeria, South Africa, and DR Congo all win, Uganda would need to beat Algeria by six goals or more to have a chance.
If Uganda win by three goals and those three nations lose, Uganda could displace Niger in the ranking of second-placed teams.
Current second-placed ranking
Gabon – 16 points
Cameroon – 15
Burkina Faso – 15
Niger – 15
DR Congo – 13
Madagascar – 13
Uganda – 12
South Africa – 11
Namibia – 9
Gabon, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all completed their fixtures.
Uganda’s 12 points can rise to 15 with victory, but they must still outscore rivals on goal difference.
Likelihood of results elsewhere
Gabon face Burundi at home. They are strong favourites to win or draw.
DR Congo host Sudan and are likely to win based on form and home advantage.
South Africa host Rwanda in Johannesburg, where they are unbeaten in qualifiers.
Benin face Nigeria in a decisive Group C match. Nigeria’s quality and record make them favourites.
Given these factors, the likelihood of all four results aligning for Uganda is roughly 10 percent.
The Bigger Picture
Even if Uganda qualify for the CAF playoff, they would face three other strong second-placed sides in Morocco from November 13 to 16.
Only one of those four will advance to the intercontinental playoff in March 2026, where they would meet teams from Asia, Oceania, South America, and North America.
Winning both tournaments would be required to reach the World Cup.
The probability
Win against Algeria: 20 percent
Favourable results elsewhere: 10 percent
Win CAF playoff: 50 percent
Win intercontinental playoff: 50 percent
Combined, Uganda’s realistic overall chance of qualifying stands at about 1 percent.
Verdict
Uganda’s World Cup dream is alive only in theory. They must beat a team they have not beaten in the previous 5 games, away from home, and hope several results swing their way. Even then, two more tournaments stand in their path.
The numbers are cold, but the hope remains. The mathematics says one percent. Football says anything could happen.
