Uganda currently sits atop Group K in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers with 10 points after four games, putting them in prime position to secure a place at next year’s tournament in Morocco.
A 2-1 victory over South Sudan on Tuesday pushed the Cranes to the brink of qualification, but a 1-1 draw between South Africa and Congo Brazzaville delayed official confirmation. Uganda needed South Africa to win that match to seal their spot.
Despite this, Uganda remains in control of their destiny. Congo Brazzaville, with four points, is the only team that can mathematically challenge Uganda to qualify with South Africa.
To do so, Congo must win their two remaining matches, including beating Uganda in Brazzaville, and South Sudan in Juba.
This would see Congo match Uganda’s 10-point tally and level the head-to-head results, given Uganda’s earlier 2-0 victory in Kampala. Congo will need to better Uganda’s 2-0 first-leg win to qualify ahead of Uganda.
If they beat Uganda 2-0 at home, the tie will then be settled by goal difference with Congo currently standing at -6, while Uganda enjoys a positive goal difference of +4.
In the scenario that Uganda loses against South Africa and Congo beats South Sudan, the goal difference would change.
For Uganda, avoiding defeat in their remaining games against South Africa and Congo in November would guarantee qualification.
Additionally, Paul Joseph Put’s squad could top the group by securing positive results in both matches.
While Congo’s mathematical chance remains, it would take a highly improbable set of outcomes to deny Uganda their ticket to Morocco in 2025.
